If you bet on the Minnesota Vikings last season, there’s a good chance your Fitbit shows wild swings in heart rate and stress levels for those three hours of action. The Vikings finished 8-9 straight up and 9-8 against the spread after playing in 13 games decided by eight points or less, including three overtime finishes.
Minnesota was 5-8 SU in those nail-biters (2-5 SU in games decided by four or less), which was enough to show Mike Zimmer the door and flip the philosophy of the franchise with new head coach Kevin O’Connell — a product of the McVay machine out of L.A.
The Vikings’ NFL odds are encouraging, especially considering how the lookahead lines are rolling out for the 2022 slate, which peg Minnesota as a point spread favorite a dozen times this season.
Is that love warranted? We discuss in our Minnesota Vikings 2022 betting preview.
Minnesota Vikings futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +3,000 |
| To win conference | +1,500 |
| To win division | +250 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 9 (Over -115) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +100 / No -120 |
Best futures bet: Over 9 wins (-115)
Some books are dealing this futures market as low as 8.5 (Over -155) but given the talent level, soft schedule, and positive hires on both sides of the ball, I’m confident the Vikes have 9+ wins in there somewhere.
Lookahead markets have Minny favored in as many as 12 games, and if the team can flip the success of those one-score games from 2021, there’s a good chance the Vikings will challenge not only for a Wild Card spot — but put some pressure on the Packers in the NFC North.
We’ll know if they’re up to challenge soon enough, with Green Bay slotted for Week 1.
Minnesota Vikings betting overview
What will win bets: Firepower
The Vikings have some fun players on this offense. Receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are about as good a 1-2 punch as you’ll find in the passing game — and running back Delvin Cook is a problem for rival defenses — both on the ground and through the air. O’Connell’s playbook isn’t married to the run like previous Vikings teams and will mix and move his top talents around to keep foes guessing.
That brings us to Kirk Cousins. No quarterback divides football bettors more than Minnesota’s, even within their own fanbase. Cousins has his shortcomings, which are a little less forgivable given his paycheck, but he’s better than 60% of the other starters in the league and will see a spark with his former QB coach from his days in Washington running the show this season.
What will lose bets: Defensive growing pains
The Vikings were a massive disappointment on defense last season, forcing the axe to fall on Zimmer and bringing in seasoned vet and former Broncos coordinator Ed Donatell. He’s switching this squad from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense and leaning on a talented group of linebackers and converted lineman to keep the pressure coming.
The Vikings’ defense played down to competition last year, allowing big yardage and making even the most toothless attacks look dangerous (Lions scored 29, Panthers scored 28, Steelers scored 28). That played a large part in the countless blown leads from this team.
Donatell’s system has a lot of moving pieces and is a big step away from seven years worth of Zimmer ball. If the stop unit struggles with its identity, it will waste whatever the revamped offensive puts forth and burn bettors for another year.
More Covers NFL betting analysis
- Chicago Bears betting preview
- Super Bowl odds
- NFL MVP odds
- Comeback Player of the Year odds
Minnesota Vikings game-by-game odds
Depending on where you bet, you can find the Vikings as point spread favorites in as many as 12 games. And there are also some notable line differences out there from book-to-book — a couple as big as two points (-1.5 to -3.5 vs. Patriots in Week 12/-4.5 to -6.5 vs. Jets in Week 13/PK to -2 vs. Colts in Week 15).
Minnesota gets a fairly easy schedule in 2022, ranked out 20th in standard strength of schedule and 23rd in my QB SOS, with Cousins coming out equal to or higher than the 11 other starters on the sked. That said, many of those opposing offenses are expected to improve this season.
The Vikings also have just seven true road games — with a trip to London to play the Saints in Week 4 — and only go east for those away tilts. Minnesota is an underdog in four of those road games, going 1-4 SU but 3-2 ATS as a road pup last season and owning a 14-27 SU record and 23-18 ATS count when getting the points away from home under Zimmer (since 2014).
| 1 | vs. Green Bay | +2.5 | 49 |
| 2 | @ Philadelphia | +2.5 | 48 |
| 3 | vs. Detroit | -7 | 47.5 |
| 4 | vs. New Orleans (UK) | -1 | 45.5 |
| 5 | vs. Chicago | -6.5 | 46.5 |
| 6 | @ Miami | +3 | 47 |
| 7 | BYE | ||
| 8 | vs. Arizona | -2 | 49.5 |
| 9 | @ Washington | -1.5 | 46.5 |
| 10 | @ Buffalo | +8 | 49.5 |
| 11 | vs. Dallas | -1.5 | 49 |
| 12 | vs. New England | -3.5 | 45.5 |
| 13 | vs. N.Y. Jets | -6.5 | 48 |
| 14 | @ Detroit | -3 | 47.5 |
| 15 | vs. Indianapolis | -2 | 48.5 |
| 16 | vs. N.Y. Ginats | -6.5 | 47 |
| 17 | @ Green Bay | +6.5 | 45.5 |
| 18 | @ Chicago | -2.5 | 42 |
Minnesota Vikings pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
Could be a dark horse in a wide open NFC. With elite playmakers surrounding an above average quarterback, Minnesota could be back in the playoffs if they can be on the right side of end-game variance this season.
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Adam Chernoff, The Simple Handicap podcast (@adamchernoff)
